Modi govt Bangladesh policy was a victim of its Pakistan policy

  • India’s tough line vs. Pakistan starting 2016, in a way, made Modi government enhance co-operation with Bangladesh. Know examples and benefits of 2 way co-operation. Can India’s foreign policy be devoid of the M factor?  

Since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ji was ousted and chief advisor M Yunus took charge, there has been a down turn in India Bangladesh relations accompanied by numerous attacks on the Hindu community there.

 

Some commentators have blamed the Modi government for putting all their eggs in the Hasina basket and not cultivating Bangladesh’s opposition parties. Actually, the need to do so was visible in March 2021 when violence erupted during Modi’s Dhaka visit. Source

 

Notwithstanding that during Hasina’s rule, India had provided lines of credit and a dedicated power plant in Jharkhand for providing power to Bangladesh. Further, recently a tripartite agreement was signed between India, Nepal and Bangladesh by which Nepal exported power to Bangladesh using India’s transmission lines. Next, the Friendship Pipeline allowed High Speed Diesel from Assam, India to be exported to Bangladesh.  

 

It can be argued that helping Bangladesh was part of Modi Sarkar’s ACT EAST policy. Fair point! My take is slightly different. 

 

After becoming PM Modi, like the late Atalji, extended an olive branch to Pakistan. He paid a paid a surprise visit to Lahore in December. Atal ji got Kargil whilst Modi got Pathankot and Uri. His government’s stand towards Pakistan hardened and to his credit it has not changed since the 2016 surgical strikes. Simultaneously, Modi was strengthening relations with Israel, a country that many Indian Muslims detest. Thus, relations had to improve with another Muslim majority country.  

 

Earlier, post the burning alive of 59 women and children in Godhra and the Hindu response during Modi’s tenure as Chief Minister, Modi was rightly or otherwise defensive on what happened. So when he became Prime Minister the impression carried on.

 

Being defensive and not forthright on true reasons for Godhra proved disadvantageous. If only PM Modi had publicly stated what Col Anil Athale (retd) wrote in 2005, in an article titled Did Godhra Save Pakistan. I quote, “The brain behind the Godhra incident knew it would trigger riots, which in turn would force such a redeployment. In fact, an entire division (40,000 soldiers) had to be moved, while another division was kept on alert to move into other areas if necessary. The loss of close to two divisions obviously weakened the Indian threat of action against Pakistan. But the Godhra incident was a calculated act, organised and executed by Pakistan to save itself from an imminent Indian attack.” Most of the Indian media failed to pick this story. 

 

Thus, in sections of the media and Muslim community he was perceived as being against Muslims.

 

To avoid being perceived as anti-Muslim in its foreign policy Modi Sarkar extended an olive arm to Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh. It was easy to argue that New Delhi’s was not against Muslim majority countries per say, its tough stand against Pakistan was because the country had made terrorism an instrument of state policy. Conversely, see India’s ties with Muslim majority Bangladesh. 

 

In this pursuit, Bangladesh’s share was 43% out of the $ 16144 million of Lines of Credit provided between 2013-14 and 2018-19, During this period Nepal’s share was 8%, Sri Lanka’s 2% and African continent 31%. Bangladesh got LOC worth $ 2000 million in 2015-16 and $ 5000 million in 2016-17 (refer my Financial Express article )

 

Co-relate the LoC years with those of terror attacks by Pakistan and you might notice the change in approach.

 

On the development side the India Bangladesh friendship Pipeline was inaugurated in March 2023. On the G20 Delhi summit sidelines, “Three MoUs in areas of digital payment mechanisms, cultural exchange and agricultural research were signed.” In November 2023, were inaugurated “three Indian assisted development cooperation projects in Bangladesh. The projects are: Akhaura-Agartala cross border rail link, Khulna-Mongla Port rail line and Unit II of Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant.” 1 As per the MEA, Indian visas issued in Bangladesh constitute the largest visa operations India conducts worldwide. 2

 

Further, to aid a rise Bangladesh’s international stature PM Hasina was invited as a Guest Country at the 2023 G20 Summit in New Delhi

 

During the above period, Modi government overlooked infiltration of Bangladeshis and their presence across India. I say this because after the Chief Advisor assumed charge, suddenly Indian Police have gone into an overdrive in identifying/arresting Bangladeshis. Can someone give exact numbers of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants sent back during ten years of UPA vs. Modi 1&2 terms?

Bangladeshi labour close to Siachen Base Camp. Pic 2014. 

To be fair, this warming up of relations helped India too for e.g. “6th cross-border rail link between Agartala station in India and Akhaura in Bangladesh was inaugurated in November 2023. The rail link will provide an alternate route to India’s North-East. Both countries have operationalized the Agreement for the usage of Chittagong and Mongla Ports in 2023.” 1 “India is also building, with Japan’s assistance, the Matarbari deep sea port of Bangladesh. This project could help in countering Chinese influence in this region. 2

 

Conclusion

Most sub-continent Indian Muslims look at Bangladesh and its Muslims differently from how they view Muslims from UAE, another Muslim majority country with whom India’s relations have blossomed during Modi Sarkar. Probably, Modi understood this well hence the moves.  

 

India’s Bangladesh policy was as much driven by the Act East Policy as much as it was driven by his intent of having deep relations with Muslim majority Bangladesh. Now that there is an unfriendly government in Dhaka, the Act East policy will continue but the Muslim factor could be missing because of Hindus being attacked in Bangladesh.  

 

I may be reading too much into India’s foreign policy strategy. My deeper intent is to provoke thought. Let readers decide!

 

Those who believe that Muslims are ill-treated in India should read Rights of Minorities in India . May be MEA could share its key contents with uninformed journalists and sub-continent Muslims.

 

Food for Thought

Can India’s foreign policy be devoid of the Muslim factor? After all condition of Muslims here is better in a growing and prosperous Bharat than it is in Muslim majority Pakistan and Bangladesh.  Read  Why Democracy failed in Pakistan  

 

Reference

1. MEA note on India Bangladesh relations

2. India Bangladesh Working Paper – Takshashila.org  

3. India Bangladesh Defence Cooperation – coming of age at last

    

Also read

1. Essay on Bangladeshi infiltration into India

2. Why was Bengal partitioned in 1905

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