• This article includes a brief background on Baluchistan, CPEC, why China will not allow Baluchistan to be free of Pakistan and benefits of Gwadar Port.

Post Operation Sindoor, Baluchistan (BALUC) is very much in the news in Indian media. Some believe this is the time to separate BALUC from Pakistan. Baluchis resent Punjabi domination.

This article gives background, why China will not want Baluchistan to separate, Role of CPEC and Benefits of Gwadar Port.

Background

BALUC became part of Pakistan in 1948. It is worth knowing that until 1958 Gwadar was a division of the State of Oman. On December 1958, Pakistan purchased Gwadar for a sum of 550 million rupees. 1 It was earlier offered to India but Nehru turned down the offer says this India Today report

While reviewing Sandhya Jain’s book on Baluchistan Rohit S wrote, “The historical land of the Baloch is today divided between Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. The geopolitical significance of Balochistan lies in its location, from the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz to Sindh in the east, and north up to southern Afghanistan to Dera Ghazi Khan in the north-eastern corner. 

During the medieval era, the Baloch managed to remain independent from Safavid Persia and the Indian Mughal dynasty; thus was disconnected them from the Muslim world. The colonial era intensified their isolation. Their plight worsened when the British retreated from the region, denying the Kalat State (core of Balochistan) the independence guaranteed by the 1876 Treaty, and urging it to merge with Pakistan. Jinnah’s annexation of Kalat in 1948 was a natural climax to the dialogue begun by Viceroy Louis Mountbatten.” 4 “The Safavid Empire (1502-1736) was a Persian military state that dominated the region for two centuries and initiated one of Persia's golden ages.”

"In 1970, the Quetta and Kalat divisions merged to make the present day BALUC. “Northern BALUC mainly inhabited by Pashtuns, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras, settlers from all over Pakistan and even Iranians. They are die hard Pakistanis. The Baloch clans of Khetran, Marri, Bugti, Rind and Dombki also live in north-eastern BALUC.” Stafasia.com Link

It is natural that areas in which Balochis dominate would be the areas that seek independence. That implies the Kalat division.

There have been numerous attacks on Chinese working in BALUC. There is a serious insurgency problem. The area is barren. The terrain allows insurgents or freedom fighters to spring up from nowhere and launch attacks.

Love for Pakistan and Itself

Out of love for itself and dear friend Pakistan, China will ensure that BALUC remains part of Pakistan. Name of countries used interchangeably, hence title.

Map of Pakistan. Courtesy Geology.com  

BALUC is app 44% of Pakistan’s land mass. China will not let its close ally loose such a large piece of land.

BALUC is the fruit capital of Pakistan. Will the Chinese deny their friends fruits?

BALUC is rich in minerals like minerals like copper, gold, natural gas, coal. Sooner than later, China would like to exploit these resources.

Given that BALUC is highly underdeveloped, China could undertake huge infrastructure projects esp. health/water in the region to improve their quality of life. This expense would drive up China’s GDP.

All these activities shall generate revenue for Pakistan. If I understand the Chinese correctly, they could have a lien on such revenue and use it to repay loans taken for CPEC projects.

BALUC is part of CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) that starts from Kashghar (or Kashi in Xinjiang province of China) and ends at Gwadar Port. It enters Pakistan occupied Kashmir (Gilgit/Baltistan), then Khyber Pakhtunwala, Punjab, Singh and BALUC (rail). The road or western alignment are in POK, Punjab and BALUC. Hazara Motorway is a key project that connects Peshawar to Islamabad in Punjab. Read  China includes 3 Sindh projects in CPEC  

Link Rail. 

China will do whatever it takes to ensure that Gilgit/Baltistan are always part of Pakistan notwithstanding the Instrument of Accession signed in 1947.

Why Gwadar Port?

Currently, Chinese imports from the Middle East have to pass through the Strait of Malacca (It is a narrow stretch of water, 65 to 250 km wide, between the Malay Peninsula to the northeast and the Indonesian island of Sumatra to the southwest, connecting the Andaman Sea and the South China Sea). Since the Straight is not under Chinese control China is vulnerable. An alternate to that is Gwadar Port through which China can connect to the Middle East (Kashghar through Pakistan).

Reduction in transit time for China due to Gwadar. 

With the Chinese in Gwadar, it can become a hearing/viewing post to overlook U.S. activities in the Middle East. Gwadar is also close to Iran. Nusrat R wrote, “Further China to keep an eye on the sea-lanes from the Persian Gulf as about 60% of Chinese energy supplies is instigated from Persian Gulf and transport with this lane.” 1

If China makes Gwadar Port a success it could take away business from Dubai (UAE) and Iran’s Chhabar Port that India and Iran are co-developing.

Moreover, BALUC shares borders with Iran and Afghanistan and has a 770 kms coastline facing the Arabian Sea giving China access to the Indian Ocean too.

View of Gwadar Port. 

At some point, China may wish to make an alternate road route to Gwadar that passes through Afghanistan i.e. Kashghar, Wakhan Corridor etc. This could also be used to export Afghan’s mineral wealth to China or rest of the world and also be used by countries of Central Asia, though am not sure if they would want to associated with Pakistan. China might find a way whereby new friend Russia gets to export from Gwadar port too. All stand to gain. 

I understand that the road route is ready. It is not known what is quantum of  traffic on CPEC currently. Have the Chinese managed to recover some of their investment!

There are Baluchis in Iran too. Southern BALUC border touches the Sistan-Balochistan of Iran. The border is porous, thus China can use it to instigate Baluchis of Iran. This could be a tool for China to pressurise Iran to toe its line.

It is not going to be easy for Balochis to get independence from Pakistan/China unless there is a sort of people’s movement like witnessed in East Pakistan amongst others.

For India it is important to have dominance (or friendly relations with countries) in area from Strait of Hormuz in the west to the Strait of Malacca in the east. The west for oil supplies and the east for dominating the Bay of Bengal and access to the Pacific Ocean.  

References

1. Paper by Nusrat Rehman

2. Strafasia.com

3. Strategic importance of Baluchistan

4. Balochistan in the cross chairs of history by Sandhya Jain