India faces Low Intensity CONFLICT not War-Dhurandhar not Border 2

  • Movies show the futility of war and rightly so. However, what most fail to realize that India is a victim of low intensity conflict for over 35 years, the last war was in 1971. Modern day warfare takes different forms. This article outlines different approaches by China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. 

 

I read some reviews of Border 2 and Ikkis (favourite Dharam-Garam last movie). Both seemed to suggest the futility of war. While respecting movie-makers and critics, they need to realize that what India has been facing since the 1980’s is Low Intensity War Fare, some of which was shown in the movie Dhurandhar.

 

Only fools go war (Russia invasion of Ukraine was an exception, caused by latter’s wish to join NATO). Remember, the Chinese captured the U.S. (market) without firing a bullet.

 

Knowing that Pakistan might not be able to win a conventional war, it promised to bleed India by a Thousand Cuts. With India, China believed in salami-slicing meaning taking control of territory slowly. 

 

What is Low Intensity Conflict?

Swati Parashar wrote, “Low intensity conflict (LIC), as commonly understood, implies armed conflict between regular armies or law enforcement agencies and non regular armed militias which could include terrorist groups, guerrilla fighters, gangs, rioters etc. The participation or involvement of the local population is an important feature of most low intensity conflicts, which are generally intra-state in nature.” 3

 

The concept of war has changed. Earlier it meant a conventional war like the present Russia-Ukraine one. For decades, it means low intensity war (used by Pakistan/Bangladesh). Making Movies that demoralise the Indian people is also a form of warfare.

 

Today, the Chinese added economic warfare and the Americans Tariffs. Let us look at each country separately.

 

Bangladesh

1. Non-stop infiltration into India of Bangladeshis, atleast from the mid-1980’s, with an intent to changing demographics. The focus initially was more on the Northeastern states because Bangladesh needs land and resources to take care of its increasing population (also unfinished agenda of Partition). Change in demographics is one of the causes of conflict in the northeast. 3

 

Gradually the infiltrators have spread to West Bengal and virtually all parts of India. Changing demographics is a form of warfare as Europe, esp. UK and Germany are discovering.

 

China

1. Support to Insurgency in Northeast India.

2. In the recent past, export of goods at such low costs that it becomes difficult for Indian companies to match that price and survive. When industries shut, it adversely affects employment and government revenues. 

3. Blocking supply of magnets and rare earths etc. considerably slows down India’s adopting Electric Vehicles and Solar Power. 

4. Delaying/not allowing export of hi-tech machinery to slow down India’s Atmanirbharta program.

5. Cyber-attacks. Sameer Patil wrote in an ORF paper, “In March 2021, a Singapore-based company, CyFirma, revealed that a Chinese state-backed hackers’ group had targeted the information technology systems of two Indian vaccine makers—Bharat Biotech and the Serum Institute of India (SII).

 

These are mostly forms of economic warfare. Bollywood does not understand these forms or is unable to weave a story around these less visible forms.

 

Getting the Mumbai Stock Markets to collapse, the Rupee to depreciate significantly and suddenly, freezing of dollar assets are modern forms of economic warfare that are acts of war but not called out as such.

 

Pakistan 

11983: The Khalistani Movement, in which over 21,000 Indians were killed.

21989 onwards: Over 43,000 people have died in the Kashmir insurgency and three lakh Kashmiri Pandits were driven out of their ancestral homes.

3. Fake Currency Racket so well brought out in the movie Dhurandhar. In 2013, one of my clients bought a Note Checking Machine because of a large number of fake Rs 500 notes in circulation.

4According to a White Paper prepared by the Home Ministry, the Cost of ISI terror between 1988-1998 was:

Nature of Cost / Loss

Value

1. Expenditure on Internal security

Rs 64,500 crs

2. Civilians killed

29,151

3. Security men killed

5,101

4. Rendered homeless

2,78,000

5. Weapons smuggled in

61,900

6. Indians hired by ISI

19,000

7. Pak/foreign militants sent into India

7,125

 

When Pakistan could achieve its objective by bleeding India, why go to war?

5. In this 2015 article Col Anil Athale made a strong argument to prove why Pakistan may have orchestrated Godhra.

6. Terrorists Attacks on India starting 1993. Click on link for details

 

Critics and pacifists are right that war leads to destruction. What they forget is that low intensity conflict is war by another name, leads to continuous and greater destruction of national wealth including people, in India’s case for over 35 years. The audiences seem to have understood that if one goes by the success of Dhurandhar, the 1971 War was 54 years ago.

 

Also read

1. Will Battle of Galwan evoke the same emotions as Dhurandhar

2. What stops me from loving Pakistan

3. Low Intensity Conflicts in India

4. Low Intensity Conflict by Prakash Singh

5. Expanding Chinese attacks against India

 

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