• In order to reduce its economic woes app 5 cr Pakis could try to enter accompanied by Bangladeshis on the West Bengal border and Chinese attack in Leh and Chicken Neck. What are the issues that India shall have to face? How will the 3 countries benefit? Some crystal ball glazing on a hypothetical situation.

Some Indian commentators were needled with Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir’s recent speech to the Overseas Pakistani Convention in Islamabad. He went on to declare that “after the Riyasat-e-Madina (the State of Medina, the first Islamic state established by the Prophet Muhammad), Pakistan is the second state established based on the Kalimah.” Source Indian Express He also harped on the 2 Nation Theory and how Hindu Muslims are different. To cement his credentials he invoked Jinnah.

When he referred to Kashmir as Pakistan’s jugular vein he meant that Pakistan would not let J&K live in peace, the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22 being an example. This article was written before the Pahalgam terror attack. 

Some think Munir is frustrated, others say the Army fears a repeat crisis  Many Indians wish Pakistan collapses and indulge in wishful thinking. 

Read between the lines of General Munir’s speech. He is trying to unify the sub-continent Muslims and speaking of Hindu Muslim differences to accentuate the divide in India and Bangladesh. The aim is to portray Pakistan as their sole protector against Hindu India and make the Indian Muslims, Baluchis, Bangladeshis, Baltis rally behind Pakistan. He is also indirectly asking them to help Pakistan in its time of need. 

Pakistan is on the brink of an economic collapse. Its failure as a modern nation state means failure of Iqbal/Jinnah’s dream and the reason for creation of Pakistan. Pakis cannot accept loss to Hindu India so it is using the Islam card.  

The Pakis have realized that Pakistan is indeed moth-eaten as Jinnah had complained.

In his 1941 book Thoughts on Pakistan Dr Ambedkar justified Pakistan by arguing the main contribution came from the provinces of Hindustan. Not only do the Pakistani provinces contribute very little to the Central Government but they receive a great deal. “Revenues of Pakistan and eastern Muslim state would be Rs 36 crs and Revenues of Hindustan will be about Rs 120 crs.” Pg 65 “Out of the total central government revenues of Rs 121 crs Rs 52 crs is spent on the army annually. The bulk of this amount which is spent on the army is spent over the Muslim army drawn from the Pakistan area. The bulk of the Rs 52 crs is contributed by the Hindu provinces and is spent on an army, from which the Hindus, who pay for it, are excluded.” Pg 95

The General is reminding Muslims that India is Dar-ul-Islam. This was one of the reasons for partition. In his book Anatomy of a Flawed Inheritance, former foreign secretary J N Dixit wrote, “Where Islam is not dominant, it is Dar-ul-Harb. It is necessary to move to Dar-ul-Islam. This was the sub-conscious logic underpinning the demand for Pakistan by Chaudhury Rahmat Ali of Cambridge, later on endorsed by Allama Iqbal and concretized by Jinnah.” 

Some think Bangladeshis will not forget Pakistan for 1971 atrocities. They miss that for Muslims, Islam was a unifier be it during the Khilafat Movement of 1920s or Palestine today. Further, the 1971 generation is too old or dead.

One of the ways to get out of present situation is for Pakistan to make India Dar-ul-Islam.  Pakistan, Bangladesh and China could execute the plan.  

The purpose of this article is to provoke thought within India’s strategic affairs community and is not targeted at any community, organization or country. 

Here is some crystal ball glazing on how the plan to weaken India could pan out.  

To address it economic problems Pakistan might send non-stop about 5 crore Pakistanis to India. They could come through Punjab and Jammu region. Simultaneously, 

a. A few crore Bangladeshis will attempt to cross into India through Bengal.

b. Intruders could be ordinary people and trained in street warfare for e.g. stabbing, robbery.

c. The Chinese will launch attack in Ladakh (attempt to take over Leh).

d. From the North the Chinese shall try to cut-off Chicken Neck and from the south the Bangladeshi people and sleeper cells in India will try.

e. China might launch Cyber Attacks to cripple India’s critical infrastructure and stock markets. 

f. Riots would be engineered in North, West and East India.

g. The BSF (Border Security Force) would be taken by surprise-cannot handle crores of intruders on two fronts.

h. The intruders will consist more of women, children (Punjabi and Pashtuns) making BSF’s job more difficult.

i. The Indian Army would be busy with Ladakh and Chicken Neck.

j. India’s political leadership would be tied up on various fronts.

What happens next?

1. They will disperse quickly across North India to avoid easy detection.

2. A few pictures of their condition in India shall be published in Western print and television, in order to put pressure on India to accept them. 

3. Some Middle Eastern countries could stop halt oil supplies in protest. The U.S. could give lip-service. Russia would offer arms against hard cash. 

4. The opposition parties, Leftists and Liberals shall talk of humanitarian relief – we are after all one people.

5. Some intruders will move towards Himachal and try to take control over its water resources. The Khalistanis know that Himachal water is essential.

6. A PIL could be filed in the Supreme Court asking for them to be given Refugee status (even though India is not a signatory to the 1951 Convention on refugees the UN Treaty on Refugees) and declare as Muslim Minority to avail of state benefits. This BJP government might succumb in order to prove its pro-Muslim credentials.

7. Like during Covid SC might get involved even though judges are not trained in history or geopolitics! Read   Decoding Vaccine Pricing and Supply  

8. Nevertheless expect PIL’s or matters being taken up suo motto.  

9. Intruder’s presence would increase fiscal deficit significantly. This would disturb India’s macro-economic stability and growth prospects.

10. Intruders will move more to BJP ruled states in North India with an intent to cause social unrest and change demographics. 

11. When the next election is held they will surely not vote BJP.  

12. Violence by sleeper cells/intruders will keep the Home Ministry occupied.

13. The Congress might have its own Prime Minister soon even though he might be as powerful as the last Mughal Emperor Bahadur Shah.

14. The TMC shall rule West Bengal and Samajwadi Party shall rule Uttar Pradesh forever.  

15. The SGPC (Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee) might invite intruders for free langar and farmers offer to hire them as farm labour (get rid of labour from Bihar and U.P.)

16. Indian Muslims who support the idea of making India Dar-ul-Islam might support them.

17. The RSS, with its dream of Akhand Bharat, might support. 

Kalbelia dance by Hungarian Muslim at Jaisalmer Desert Festival 2013.

Who gains what from such a plan?

Pakistan will say Islam has won by de-facto ruling over Hindu India. It now has the ‘kamadhenu’ to fulfil its economic needs. The Baluchis and Pashtoons will lie low because Pakistan rules the region. All Pakistanis would be allowed to settle in India like Nepalis do. Hindus will migrate worldwide or convert. Kashmir Valley will become part of Pakistan. Urdu not Hindustani will become Bollywood’s spoken language. Read   History of Urdu

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in his book Myth of Independence wrote, “It would be wrong to think that Kashmir is the only dispute that divides India and Pakistan. One at least is nearly as important as the Kashmir dispute, that of Assam and some districts of India adjacent to East Pakistan. To these, Pakistan has very good claims. East Pakistan must include Assam to be financially and economically strong”.” Demographic invasion of India from the north-east by Brig Amrit Kapur in Indian Defence Review

Bangladesh would get the north-eastern states with lots of land to settle its huge population and natural resources too.

Former Governor of Assam Lt Gen S K Sinha wrote to the President of India in his 1998 Report on Illegal Infiltration into Assam and said, “former Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s book, Eastern Pakistan: Its Population and Economics, where he makes an economic case for Assam’s inclusion in East Pakistan; a 1991 article by late Bangladeshi leftist journalist (whom Sinha erroneously calls a “diplomat”), Sadeq Khan, that invokes the controversial concept of ‘lebensraum’ or the idea of finding new land (read: Assam) to settle Bangladeshis; and another 1991 article by former Bangladeshi foreign secretary and its first ambassador to China, Abdul Momin, in which he talks about “borderless competitive trade of labour” across Bangladesh and India.” Firstpost.com

China will get India out of the way forever and become the undisputed king of Asia. The Buddhist areas of Ladakh would become part of Chinese Occupied Tibet or Xinxiang. Dalai Lama’s successor would be a Beijing nominee. The West’s China Plus 1 strategy would no longer include India.

Sub-continent Muslims will be regain their pre-British status.

“The condition of Muslims was best stated by a liberal, R M Sayani in his Presidential address at the 12th session of the Congress held in 1896. … Before the advent of the British in India, the Muslims were the rulers of the country. The court language was their own (Persian was the official language till 1837). Every place of trust and responsibility, or carrying influence and high emoluments, was theirs by birth. The Hindus did occupy the same position but were tenants-at-will of the Muslims.” (History and Culture of the Indian People, Bharatiya Vidya Bhawan, Vol. X, p. 295)

The Army would be Muslim majority like the Indian Army was in the 1930s when the British ruled India.

Shariat would be introduced. Constitution would be discussed in drawing rooms.

These simultaneous attacks could happen in months when it is not too hot and there is less snow at high altitudes.

In 1999, Atalji probably ignored General Musharraf and the result was Kargil. Look at the deeper meaning behind General Munir’s words and decipher it through the lens of history too. Desire to make Bharat FAIL can make them do anything. 

Hope the Government of India is planning for such a scenario!

Also read

1. Jinnah’s Moth-eaten Pakistan

2. Who was responsible for Partition

3. Why Akhand Bharat is a bad idea