• Countries included are USA, Iran, Israel, GCC, Russia, China, Pakistan and India. When Pakistan believes that it has Western support, its leadership is encouraged to wage war against India. It has support of China and Turkey now. And waiting to take revenge for Operation Sindoor.

Part 1 covered Implications of the US Iran War and written on April 29, about two months after the war started. Now that the US Iran Peace Agreement (60 days) is about to be signed it is worth looking at impact, gainers and losers.

Gains and Losses for the U.S.

Goals - According to a June 16 Hindustan Times report the goals were Regime change in Iran (No), Scrapping of Iran’s Nuclear Bomb capability (work-in-progress), raze its missile industry to the ground, annihilate its navy and curb its support to regional arms groups. As on date of signing Interim Peace Agreement MOU (IPA) these goals are at best work-in-progress.

Exposed Limitations of Bombing – non-stop bombing for nearly five weeks did not produce the desired results. Instead, it has united the Iranian people in support of their government, showed Iran’s missile capability and made Iran weaponize the Strait of Hormuz.

This weaponization increased crude prices, shortages and higher prices across the world. This gave the U.S. a bad name – starting a war without thinking through of consequences.

The war has reduced U.S. missile stocks and exposed the fact that the U.S. will not be able to sustain a long-term war. Replenishing missile stocks will take time and as Devina Mehra wrote in the MINT can be done when China supplies critical rare earths.

Daily statements by U.S. President Donald Trump did not endear him to many countries. During war, the head of state should speak less-let the armed forces and actions talk!

The War has reduced U.S. status globally. Further, as seen in the Gulf, U.S. weapons could not always protect their assets and bases. GCC countries might turn to India for missiles.

It is perceived that President Trump is trying to cut U.S. losses and get out of this messy situation. Trump does not wish to get entangled in a long war like Russia has in Ukraine. War costs huge money – the U.S. debt/GDP ratio is already high.

Simultaneously, the U.S. must realize that war is serious business and think through possible consequences before going to war. Iran is not Venezuela!

I am glad that the U.S. has decided to cut its losses through a face-saver deal. A long war in a distant land is difficult to win, remember Vietnam!

The U.S. must realize that unlike earlier, Dadagiri might not work with every country.

Utpal Kumar summed up it very well in a Firstpost.com article, “The strongest and most successful rulers are those who make more friends than enemies and can keep allies together.”

Being the larger country, it is for the U.S. to carry its Anglo-Saxon allies with it.  

Gains and Losses for Iran

The first ceasefire started on April 8, 2026. It means that Iran survived heavy U.S. Israel Bombing from 28/2/ to 8/4/ i.e. nearly five weeks. The Mullahs grouping will strengthen their hold over Iran.

Iran has defended so war objectives not spelt out. By attacking U.S. based in the Gulf, it gave a message to host countries and the U.S. – a first. 

The divide between Shia Iran and other Gulf nations like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait is near permanent.

What will be the future of Iran’s regional proxies, namely Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Palestine and Popular Mobilization Force in Iraq, is something only time will tell! Israel will resists attempts to include Hezbollah and Hamas as part of the peace deal and vacate areas occupied by it.   

MOU Financial Impact- If the $ 300 billion Iran Rehabilitation Plan is part of the MOU it would be a booster. Also, if Oil Sanctions are lifted on signing of MOU it would help both Iran and China since the latter was its biggest customer before February 28 attack. Frozen funds and assets of Iran will be available. This will strengthen Iran’s financial position. By getting the final resolution approved by the Security Council it is involving a large number of countries and making compliance the U.S. responsibility. 

GCC Countries

The GCC countries have suffered in status and damage due to Iran attacks. Their alliance with the U.S. shall continue but they could look for more alliances and weapons – India has an opportunity.

They have realized the importance of anti-drone weapons so Ukraine’s weapons would be in demand across the region.

Credit Istock photo, Dimitrios Karamitros.

These countries would build new infrastructure between oilfields and ports that sit outside the Gulf of Oman coast i.e. pipelines, road and railway networks. Huge opportunity for India and China.  

Israel

The invincibility of Israel in the Middle East is what Iran has broken. How the Israelis respond to this and war with Iran’s proxies, i.e. Hezbollah and Hamas, needs to be seen?  

Iran is unlikely to give up its nuclear program for which its has sacrificed so much. It needs money and unfrozen assets so it can build its assets for the next big fight.

Gains and Losses for China

The war is a good for China. It showed the resilience of its economy, however, being the society that it is one does not known the truth. Surely, the Chinese studied U.S. moves and warfare strategy to estimate U.S. limitations in case a war over Taiwan breaks out. However, Japan is not Israel.

China could gain by bagging major contracts for rebuilding esp. in Iran. In GCC countries, contracts could go to Indian and Chinese companies.

China’s ties with Iran got strengthened by virtue of China supplying gases for missiles (per media reports). What went by train through the BRI route is unknown!

Russia

Russia’s stature has fallen visa viz. China. It can rise if it can get out the Ukraine War without loss of face. Russia’s bonds with Iran strengthened. One of the reasons could be supplying essentials through the Black Sea when the U.S. imposed an economic blockade. 

Pakistan is smiling

A country that made export of terror an instrument of state policy is playing peacemaker between the U.S. and Iran. Surely Air Marshall Khan and country stature have risen.

Given Iran’s quest to achieve nuclear power status, suddenly the world is realizing that Pakistan is the only Islamic country with a Nuclear Bomb. It might also export nuclear technology to Iran and claim credit for the final MOU where Iran agrees to give up nuclear processing facility.

By allowing Iran to use Karachi port for landing of containers and their transport to Iran, Pakistan countered negative Iranian thoughts for providing troops to Saudi Arabia. This provision strengthened the Saudi-Pak Defence Agreement and means Saudi will bail out Pakistan in the future.

If the peace deal eventually gets signed 60 days later, Trump might nominate the Air Marshall for a Noble Peace Prize and receive it jointly.

India

India’s support to Israel, even if tacit was apparent. The way to take on Iran may evolve into a coalition of Israel and some Middle East countries.

When Pakistan believes that it has Western support, its leadership is encouraged to wage against India. It has support of China and Turkey now. And waiting to take revenge for Operation Sindoor. Since 1971, they are taking revenge for liberation of East Pakistan.

India should prepar for a joint Pakistan China attack with attacks in the East, could be Arunachal, Sikkim and Bangladesh border.   

India will make a big mistake if it thinks the U.S. shall help. She is pretty much on her own.

Later, there might be a huge opportunity for India to big for rebuilding contracts and supply arms to GCC countries.

Overall, the West (U.S. and Europe) have weakened. It is now that one realizes the downside of getting embroiled in a long war and appreciate the four day Operation Sindoor.

Also read

1. Commonality between Trump and Aurangzeb

2. Why India should not be INSECURE about Pakistan role in US Iran Peace Talks

3. How Peace in the Middle East benefits Pakistan

4. Saudi Pakistan Defence Agreement is a U.S. tool to retain global dominance

5. Iran’s regime survives, Israel worries: Winners, losers emerging from new US-Iran deal - analysis