• Fifteen ways how India can deal with the present down-turn in Indo-U.S. relations and help President Trump. Simply told. 

Pre-Alaska the narrative for Ukraine was Ceasefire. Post Summit it changed to a Peace Agreement. President Trump stated in early August that secondary tariffs of 25%, called sanctions on India now, would kick off from August 27, 2025 if there was no ceasefire agreed to in Alaska. A few days ago, Peter Navarro, White House Trade Advisor, accused India of profiteering by importing Russian Oil, processing and selling it. To hear Peter ji, part of Amit S’s 2 minute video  25% additional tariffs, now called Sanctions, were imposed post Alaska. Further, the visit of a U.S. trade delegation that was to visit India on August 25-29, was called for. Tariffs are now 50% which include 25% sanctions for buying Russian Oil.

External Affairs Minister Jaishankar said in Russia, during a recent visit, that he was perplexed by the U.S. approach. EAM said that India was nudged into buying Russian oil by the U.S. in order to stabilise global oil prices. Further, China is the biggest buyer of Russian Oil. NATO member Turkey too buys large quantities not to forget Europe’s purchase of LNG. Yet, India is sanctioned actually because it does not export any product to the U.S. like rare earths that are critical to the U.S.

China criticized the U.S. sanctions on India and so did Russia who offered a 5 % discount on oil purchases. Indian exporters were disappointed. Note that exports of smartphones and pharmaceuticals are not covered by 50% tariffs. 

It has taken twenty-five years of hard work by different political parties in India and the U.S. to re-build Indo-U.S. relations. If one President wishes to set the clock back, one can only wait for the tide to turn.

When decisions are based on emotion than reason there is little one can do. India needs to believe in itself, change if she has erred and hope the U.S. sees reason.

If the U.S. thinks that it can weaken Russia financially by forcing India not to buy Russian oil, it has underestimated the staying power of Russia and the strength of Indo-Russian friendship.

The U.S. has probably failed to realize that one of the many reasons why India could maintain macro-economic stability was through smart crude oil buying. Simply put, higher crude prices might have forced oil marketing companies to increase end consumer prices in India or increased fiscal deficit both of which would have fuelled inflation. With a huge deficit and high debt as a % of GDP, the U.S. should relate! 

What must India do post impositions of 50% tariffs/sanctions? (not in any order)

1. No overreaction, no retaliatory tariffs, no airing differences publicly. Behave as if nothing had happened.

2. If President Trump expresses a desire to meet Prime Minister Modi during his forthcoming visit to New York for United Nations General Assembly session, agree  provided Pakistan’s PM or Army General Munir are not in Washington then. Modi should hug Trump like he did earlier. 

Make it clear to Trump that the Nobel Peace Prize has to be earned only for ending the Ukranine conflict. At the same time, make President Putin realize the need for a compromise, in Russia’s interest. 

3. The Government of India needs to win the narrative, by running a sustained campaign in both India and U.S., that makes the following points.

a. With economies like the U.S. which primarily export less of merchandise but more of services and agricultural products (agri-produce/dairy) the concept of Trade Deficit does not accurately reflect the currency surplus/deficit. Familiarise people with the concept of Adjusted Trade Deficit where the trade deficit is adjusted for Education Remittances, arms purchases, Digital Services, Financial Operations etc. Read more on the concept here

Honestly, India needs intellectuals who can redefine these terms and take a public stand. The U.S. approach today is like its academic Wendy Doniger looking at India through a Western civilizational lens instead of an Indic one.  

b. How unhindered imports of agricultural produce and dairy products would adversely impact Indian farmers etc.

c. Where possible offer to reduce the tariffs by publicly saying so without affecting trade negotiations.

d. How sale of generic medicines made by Indian pharma companies is reducing the healthcare in the U.S. Read more about it here

e. What is the amount of Revenue not profit that Big Tech, notably Google/Meta/Microsoft have by doing business in India?

f. Name the Beef content in products which the U.S. wishes to export or make India reduces tariffs.

g. Highlight how the IIT’s (Indian Institute of Technology), subsidized by the Government of India, have provided talent to U.S. Inc and will continue to do so because excessive reservations in India means there will be a continous flight of talent.  

4. Continue buying Oil and Arms from Russia but make it known that Russia must increase imports from India (helps reduce dependence on the U.S. market)

5. Trump shall not be President forever. Think long-term i.e. beyond his four year term.

6. Do not loosen regulatory control over U.S. based NGO’s working in India esp. Church based ones.

7. Do not expect public support from U.S. based Non-Resident Indians. Being U.S. citizens they cannot be seen to be supporting their country of origin.

8. At every point remember China is enemy number one, current downturn in ties with the U.S. is an aberration. Yet India must be engaged with China and find areas where the two countries can work together for mutual benefit. 

9. Give President Trump a face-saver by importing more crude or and arms. He has raised the stakes with secondary sanctions. If he believes he erred, help him find a way out to save face.

10. Make it clear to the U.S. that India is happy to be a strategic partner but that does not give the U.S. a veto on India’s foreign or domestic policy.

11. India has done well not publicly respond to Trump’s ji near daily tweets. That needs to continue.

12. If the U.S. wishes to go to bed with Pakistan, make them aware of the pitfalls beyond which the U.S. has to pay for its karmas for e.g. 9/11/.

Make it known that India will build up military strength to protect its sovereignty. If the U.S. are willing to help great, if not India will carry on.

13. The recent experience of India based Russian oil major Nayara with Microsoft should make India realize the long-term need for Indian digital platforms.  

14. Undertake Reforms at the Centre and State levels. If India is an attractive investment destination, U.S. companies would invest in India.

15. Wherever possible continue co-operation with the U.S. in science and technology. Do not let the present mar what could be a bright future for both.

Also read

1. 15 ways to counter U.S. August 1 tariffs

2. Album Museum of Fine Art Boston

3. Album San Jose Gurdwara is amongst the most scenic

4. Album Ashrams in and around Los Angeles

5. Cooperate, Compete, Atmanirbharta should be India’s mantra in an uncertain world

This is the seventh in a series of articles post Trump Tariffs. One, explained what is trade deficit? Two, looked at both the trade and geo political issues. What does U.S.A. want? What is President’s Trump’s approach and Implications? 15 IDEAS how India can respond. Three, Look at Trade Deficit Numbers after removing APPLE Iphone exports Four, US Needs Indian Pharma products and India needs US market . Five, Cooperate, Compete, Aatmanirbharta should be India’s MANTRAS in this UNCERTAIN world . Six, What India Inc MUST DO to Reduce Imports from China