Why did BJP UNDERPERFORM in Lok Sabha Poll 2024

  • This article gives eleven reasons for the BJP’s underperformance in 2024 polls.

This article gives eleven reasons for the BJP not realizing its potential in Lok Sabha polls of 2024.


1. Declaration of 400 seats target

By making this target public, it took the voter’s support for BJP for granted. No voter likes to be taken for granted. Also, because of this brag, perhaps BJP supporters did not go out to vote because they took BJP victory for granted.


Modi’s statement that majority required to effect big change was not required. It gave the Congress a handle to beat the BJP with, saying party wanted to amend the Constitution (read as reservations). Though the BJP changed tack, damage was done. 


People who effect big change prefer not to publicly say so unless details are given.


2. Over-confidence post Pran Prathistha at Ram Mandir

The party thought that with the opening of the Ram Mandir it would win without a problem. This made it over-confident, perhaps a bit arrogant too.


It seemed ill-prepared for onslaughts, like the Electoral Bond scheme, which brought the matter into national focus and made public forget construction of  Ram Mandir, a historic event. Underestimating your opponents is dangerous. 


3. Congress/Samajwadi Party’s partially success in reviving caste politics in Uttar Pradesh.

INDIA alliance realized that consolidation of Hindu votes in the Hindi heartland was a way to prevent a repeat performance by the BJP. Hence, talk of caste survey. Their plans succeeded in Uttar Pradesh. Read  Congress strategy is to divide Hindus by caste 


4. Perception that Enforcement Directorate action stopped the minute you joined BJP.

There is truth in this Congress accusation. I will not take names but there are many examples.


Further, in ten years, the BJP did not get conviction of any Congress leader allegedly involved in numerous scams during UPA2 for e.g. National Herald and Coalgate.  


5. Making Team Ajit Pawar part of the Alliance in Maharashtra was a mistake

Team Ajit Pawar’s reputation in Maharashtra is not the best. The BJP underestimated public dislike for Team Ajit Pawar. By splitting the party, it gave a fillip to Sharad Pawar’s fortunes and earned him public sympathy. 


When public see an 82 year old man, suffering due to health problems the way he is, campaign in the autumn of his life, Indians being emotional by nature would vote for his party. Who knows it might be his last election, the voter might think!

6. BJP running after that elusive Muslim vote

BJP has done a lot for the Muslim community– Scholarships, government jobs, homes etc. Like NDA1, this government suffers from similar guilt. 


If only they had read Dr Ambedkar’s 1941 book ‘Thoughts on Pakistan’ and imbibed its learning’s, they might have behaved differently. 


7. Inaction on Equal Rights for Hindus

Giving Hindus equal human rights does not affect others for e.g. right to manage temples yet the law was not changed in ten years. Read  Laws that will give Hindus equal human rights    


8. Understanding Bengali Psyche

Inspite of rampant corruption in West Bengal and more, the ruling party got 30 plus seats means voters of WB are guided by reasons other than government performance.


BJP needs to ascertain what drives the Bengali Hindu voter to vote for the TMC?

9. Failure to Speak about shortcomings in the Congress manifestos vs. advertisements.

Congress advertisements promised crop loan waiver and Rs 1000/ allowance to Women (remember the Khata Khat words of Rahul Gandhi) but manifesto says something else.


Pg 16 of the manifesto under section Women reads, “Congress resolves to launch a Mahalakshmi scheme to provide 1 lakh per year to every poor Indian family as an unconditional cash transfer. The poor will be identified among the families in the bottom of the income pyramid.” So the Rs 1 lakhs annual allowance is not to all women but only to woman whose families are in the bottom of income pyramid. What does bottom of the income pyramid mean?


The advertisements, print and electronic, promised total farm loan waiver. Pg 18 of the manifesto reads, “We will appoint a Permanent Commission on Agricultural Finance that will report periodically on the extent of agricultural credit and the need for loan forbearance.” Note the word waiver is not used. 


10. The BJP communicates well mostly but not whilst effecting change. 

In today’s connected world, people wish to know the reason for introducing key changes that impact their lives. Governments, BJP or Congress, must realize they can longer push their way through. Communication is important even if people disagree with you. 


By repeatedly raising the Agniveer issue Rahul G gave it traction for which the BJP gave no response.  


For how long will the BJP outsource defence of its policies to its supporters?


When PM Modi said Modi3 will have major change during an election campaign, he needed to give people some idea of the proposed changes. This was not done. By nature, human beings like status quo and are apprehensive of change unless they know how it impacts them.


By notifying CAA days before the polls, the BJP did not allow details of CAA law to be communicated to its supporters and allowed the opposition to spread misinformation. Circulate FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) whilst effecting new laws.  


11. The Congress strategy is to say their mandate is to protect the Constitution.

This way they get support of those in the legal fraternity who want status quo and scheduled caste who are apprehensive changes about  reservation policy even though the Constitution mandated it for only ten years. 


The BJP needs to call the bluff in three ways.


One, debunk myth that Dr Ambedkar wrote the Constitution. Share excerpts from Dr Arghya Sengupta’s book The Colonial Constitution. Author is Research Director, Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy. Two, give details of how the Congress amended the Constitution over 70 times. Three, challenge this colonial myth that backward classes were always suppressed in India. Communication!


It seems the Modi-Shah duo tried extra hard to win this time. A bit of detachment might have helped. I must nevertheless appreciate the campaigning effort, more so in this heat.  


Former PM Mrs Indira Gandhi disliked strong state leaders. The BJP must allow state leaders to blossom because no all India party can be run by a couple of leaders.


Hope the BJP ecosystem will, even if grudgingly, appreciate the efforts of Rahul Gandhi who prevented the party from getting 275 seats.


Amit Shah has done very well as Home Minister. Will he become Prime Minister in the post-Modi era or be another Shri Advani, only time will tell!


Every party needs to have some values. In pursuit of power, the BJP gave up those values for e.g. by taking highly corrupt leaders into the party.


Is BJP a North Indian Party?

According to a Business Standard report of June 5, 2024 the BJP vote share in five states are: “Telangana 35.1%, Congress 40.1%, Tamil Nadu 11.2%, DMK 26.8%, Kerala 16.6%, Congress 35.1%, Communist 25.8%, Karnataka 46.1%, Congress 45.4%, Andhra Pradesh 11.3% , TDP 37.8, YSR 39.6%.” This election has shown that BJP can no longer said to be a North Indian party. 


Loss in Ayodhya

The people of Ayodhya must realize that their sacrifice is for the devotees of Sanatana Dharma across the world. Over time, lakhs of Sraddhalus must visit. They must seize the opportunities that come their way for e.g. by starting home stays, small hotels, food stalls and becoming tourists guides. They must compare what Ayodhya was and what it will become. Benefits shall accrue to future generations as well. Earlier their Ram Lalla was in a tent, now is a grand temple. 


BJP must ask itself. Was a fall in victory of Modi’s margin in Varanasi to 1.52 lakh votes (4.79 lakhs in 2019) a result of the conflicting vision of the development of Varanasi or something else? Read  Mool Karyakarta Is Disheartened’; ‘Modi’s Gujarati Friends Have Cornered All Benefits’: Murmurs And Stories Behind The Almost-Upset In Varanasi


Indian public likes it leaders to be Humble 24 by 7.


Also read

1. Agenda for new government

2. Congress freebies could damage hard earned fiscal success

3. Inflation Trends in India  

4. 75 Reasons why I will remember this Modi government

 5. Why Punjab farmers are protesting

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