• Article looks at data from earlier elections to tell if Gujarat is a BJP bastion. It gives 3 examples of innovative work done and compares the current situation with that of 2017 election. Lastly, has Tips for the BJP/Congress/AAP.

Ever since the BJP wrested Gujarat from the Congress in 1995 and more so since Modi became Chief Minister in October 2001, the assembly elections attract disproportionate national attention. It is assumed that Gujarat is a BJP bastion. See Table 1 and 2 to know the truth.

Table 1- Number of Seats Won by BJP and Congress in Gujarat-1998 to 2017

Source https://resultuniversity.com/gujarat-election#2012

The Congress won 77 seats or 42% of the total number of seats in the 2017 polls. Surely, the Congress has pockets of influence or how else would it win 51 seats even in 2002! Rahul Gandhi led a spirited campaign which saw the Congress tally increase from a low of 51 seats in 2002 to 77 in 2017.

Yet we have forgotten this Congress performance. The party has not given enough importance to Gujarat for which it is to blame. They have given the impression, atleast outside of Gujarat, that there hardly exists an opposition in the state. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) wishes to be a heard opposition and is all making efforts.

It is also not the case that BJP did well in all regions of Gujarat. See Table 2.

Table 2- Region wise seats won by BJP 

Source

In Saurashtra the BJP tally fell from 35 to 21 between 2012 and 2017. Note that in 2017 the Patidar agitation was at its peak and probably effected voting in Saurashtra.  The Congress vote share is reasonable and consistent.

Table 3- Vote Share BJP vs Congress 

So wonder why is Gujarat called a BJP bastion and the Congress not a heard opposition in Gujarat? It is this gap and more that AAP is trying to fill.

Being in power for 27 years in a state is no mean achievement. The challenge now is to get re-elected.

As someone who is not a resident of Gujarat but who has observed the state for years and travelled throughout the state a few developments have stayed with me.

In a 2006 article this author wrote about ‘a unique scheme called Jyotir Gram Yojna. Due to inadequate power generation and excessive consumption by the agricultural sector, load shedding was unavoidable. With an investment of Rs 1,300-1,500 crore, the government decided to provide single/three-phase electricity connections to domestic and cottage industry consumers in all villages with a population more than 3,000. This way, line one is for agricultural and line two for domestic use.” It aimed to provide three-phase electricity to all 18,000 villages. To know more read

This scheme (introduced in September 2003) resulted in rural development and had a multiplier effect. If implemented in Punjab, amongst other states, similar benefits could accrue. In Punjab it will prevent free power given for agriculture from misuse for e.g. in farm houses. Read an assessment of the Jyoti Gram Scheme Here

Any attempt to give freebies might be resented by voters. Gujaratis are a dynamic, risk-taking and business oriented community. They know that nothing comes free. 

Another example is cotton. In a 2006 article this author wrote how sops to cotton farmers in Mahashtra did not prevent farm distress. However, “In neighbouring Gujarat a combination of factors ensured production increase. First, unlike Maharashta, Gujarat did not waste money on monopoly procurement and chose to invest it in irrigation. Also water levels across the state have gone up due to large scale rain water harvesting by the construction of thousands of check dams. Gujarat, also created its own brand, Shanker6.” The state government focused on doing the right things and create an enabling environment that increased production. Punjab, where the ground water has fallen drastically can learn from Gujarat.

Tent City Dhordo, Kutch.  

 A third e.g. is the creation of tourist destination out of nothing, in Kutch and Kevatia. This author visited the Tent City (Kutch) and Kevatia i.e. home to the Statue of Unity.

In a 2018 article this author wrote, “Eight-six kms from Bhuj and at one end of Kutch is Salt Desert Dhordo. Earlier village Dhordo was hardly visited and had poor infrastructure. Main occupation was animal husbandry and handicrafts. Inadequate employment forced migration. People lived relatively insulated lives. Tent City was set up in 2008. At village Gandhi nu Gaam met with Puna Sumar Marvada who specializes in making wood furniture, mud painting, and sells kutchi textiles. He told the author that Rann Utsav was a boon. During peak tourist season he did not have time to breathe.”

Bags by Narsingh Bhai Sanjot, village close to Tent City.  

In 2020 I visited Tent City Kevatia and Statue of Unity. Like in Dhordo, Kutch an amazing tourist attraction was created out of nowhere and in a backward area. Friends who visited in 2022 returned very happy. The Taj Group is planning to open a hotel there shortly. 

View from Statue of Unity, right is Narmada Dam. 

Tent City, Kevatia   

The Narmada Dam is an emotional issue in Gujarat. According to this July 2022 Indian Express report, “Narmada waters reached Mod Kuba, a village in Mandvi taluka of Kutch district, through the Kutch Branch Canal (KBC), 750 km from the Narmada dam.” Saurashtra and North Gujarat regions are already receiving Narmada waters. Recently, senior journalist Swaminathan Ankleshwar Aiyar wrote that Medha Patkar was wrong on the Narmada project

Only those who have lived in water deficit areas can relate to the importance of Narmada water for Gujarat. The BJP made the river water reach homes through a dam and canal network. It is in Gujarat’s interest to start an Afforestation program in Amarkantak, source of the holy river in Madhya Pradesh.

The first three examples were written earlier and are being recalled because they are innovative solutions. Having said that, BJP needs to talk about what it will do in the next five years and not over dwell on past achievements.

Voters tend to forget work done over the years and take the present for granted. After all, a generation has grown up under BJP rule.  

Comparing situation in 2017 vs. 2022

In 2017 BJP was adversely affected by unhappiness due to demonetization, GST and patidar agitation. GST has stabilised now and the agitation over. So also BJP had failed to anticipate and address rural discontent in 2017 esp. in Saurashtra. If it has not made amends in the last five years, expect the Congress/AAP to take advantage.

Now some notes for BJP/Congress/AAP

The BJP needs to release its manifesto in time unlike in 2017.

The BJP state leadership at the top are 60 plus. Will they be able to connect with the youth?

The BJP must not take voters for granted. Hurting their ego could be dangerous.

The BJP needs to be careful of opponents who might try to create examples of violence against backward classes. Recall the thrashing of Dalits in Una in 2016 went against the BJP in the 2017 poll. Yet as battle lines are drawn a live recording of such created events and making video viral is a distinct possibility.  

For years BJP ignored and refused to critically evaluate AAP Delhi government claims to good governance. Now that AAP is fighting BJP in Gujarat and Himachal, BJP has woken up. CBI action is perceived to be a result even though AAP’s withdrawal of the new liquor policy within months has created a strong impression that there was something majorly wrong with the new policy. Time will tell the truth and whether AAP makes inroads. 

Readers might recall that in 2017 there were similar raids in the run-up to Ahmed Patel’s re-election to the Rajya Sabha. Income-tax raids on a then Karnataka minister made people perceive that the government’s actions were driven by emotion than reason. 

The raids did not affect the Congress. Patel won. We will have to wait and see if Delhi raids impact AAP chances. Either way do not underestimate the Congress and AAP.

What might go against both these parties is their very pro-Muslim stand.  

The recent riots and killings of Hindus in Congress ruled Rajasthan is surely not lost on the Gujarat electorate. The AAP government in Delhi is visibly pro-Muslim. Remember that the recent Hindu Muslim riots in Delhi occurred, after a long gap, during AAP rule even though law and order in Delhi comes under the Centre. It will be difficult for the Congress/AAP to change this impression.   

Expect the Congress/AAP to question the government’s performance on indicators like nutrition, health, education and unemployment.

Rahul Gandhi should not be defensive about this religion. Since his father was Parsi and mother Christian, there is no way he can claim to be a Hindu. Be upfront rather than trying to fool voters. 

AAP promises freebies to woo voters. One such freebie promised in Punjab was a monthly stipend of Rs 1,000/ per month to women above 18. The scheme, estimated annual cost atleast Rs 10,000 crores, is yet to be implemented post the February 2022 elections. Some say the government has five years to fulfil this promise. Voters must not expect Rs 1,000/ from day government assumes office. 

To see over 25 albums on Gujarat

Also see albums of

1. Tent City Dhordo, Kutch

2. Statue of Unity, Kevatia

3. Mud homes paintings, Kutch

4. Craft Villages of Kutch