• This article first give you a background of political party associations in Maharashtra for period 1995 to 2025. Next, it shares insights on party-wise performance in BMC polls from 2007 to 2026 with focus on latest results.

Now that the Mahayukti (BJP+Shinde Sena) have won the BMC (Municipal Elections) many believe that this is the end of the Thackeray Sena (UBT). This article seeks to present a realistic view by reviewing BMC results at a macro-level.

SS stands for Shiv Sena undivided, UBT for Udhav Sena, SHS for Shinde Sena.

Background to Maharahtra Political Alliances since 1990

It was formed in 1989 for the Lok Sabha Poll. In 1990, they formed an alliance for the Assembly Polls. SS won 53 seats and BJP 42.

The BJP-SS formed a government in 1995 with a SS leader (Manohar Joshi) as CM on the understanding that the CM would come from the party that got more seats. SS got more seats. Government term ended in 1999.

Congress-Undivided NCP alliance ruled the state from 2000 to 2014.

Raj Thackeray, left the Sena, founded the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena in 2006. He is said to have aligned with other parties to split Marathi manoos votes thus destroying his credibility in the process.

In 2009 Assembly polls BJP, got 44 seats and SS 42, so became Leader of the Opposition.

Balasaheb, architect of the alliance, passed away in 2012.

In 2014 assembly polls, BJP SS contested separately. BJP won 122 seats and SS 63.

BJP SS ruled the state from 2014 to 2019 with Fadnavis as Chief Minister. BJP called the shots.

In 2019, Lok Sabha polls they came together again.

BJP-SS alliance split ahead of 2019 assembly polls. Sharad Pawar achieved his intent of weakening the Sena by getting Udhav on his side.

Source and for a detailed report read this and another report

Udhav Thackeray became CM from November 2019 to June 2022 by joining hands with the Congress-NCP. Due to this, SS credibility with its supporters eroded. You only have to listen to Balasaheb’s old videos on Congress-NCP.

Udhav did not perform too badly, managed the Covid 19 Pandemic well. But he got into an avoidable fight with Republic TV’s Arnab Goswami and relocation of Aarey Metro 3 shed. On both issues, one felt Udhav’s ego came in the way. 

Somehow, one got the impression that the SS could not give up their protesting ways inspite of their chief being CM.

In hindsight, Udhav failed to talk about high profile projects for the Marathi manoos for e.g. laying foundation stone for multi-storeyed towers in 2021 in place of nearly century old BDD Chawls in Central Mumbai. Udhav did inaugurate the Tunnel Boring Machines for the Coastal Road Project and called them ‘Mavla’. “The bhoomi pujan for the coastal road project was performed by Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray in December 2018.” Source   The BJP’s strength lies in execution and then talking about it.

During his tenure as CM, Udhav was targeted by BJP. Health concerns raised.

Eknath Shinde, senior Sena leader from Thane, split the Shiv Sena and became Chief Minister of Maharashtra in June 2022, with BJP as partner. In June 2023, NCP leader Ajit Pawar left the NCP and joined the Shinde led government.

The Election Commission allotted the Shiv Sena symbol (tiger) to SHS.

2025 Assembly polls were fought jointly by BJP-SHS-NCP. BJP won 132 seats (105 in 2017), SHS 57 (56), NCP 41 (44), UBT 20, Congress 16 (44), AIMIM 1 (2). Source BJP performance improved, SHS and NCP nearly the same. This time BJP Fadnavis became CM although Eknath Shinde, with 57 seats out of 288, wanted to become CM, according to media reports.  

Trend of BMC elections

                    Number of Seats won in BMC polls

 Source 2017 and 2012 and 2007 Wikipedia.

Comments

1. In 2012, BJP-SS at 106 seats were short of majority 114 so took support. It is not that SS got a majority on its own.

2. In 2026, inspite of completing some good projects like Coastal road, Metro 3, Amar Sethu, BJP got only 7 seats more than it got in 2017.

3. Thackeray Brothers aggressive campaign about welfare of Marathi manoos forced the BJP to alter its strategy to focus on them as well.

4. In 2026, BJP did not perform well in Central Mumbai i.e. Worli, Sewri etc that have a large Marathi manoos population.

A friend said that SS’s (now UBT) strength is the area wise Shakha (local office). Its people help local population in dukh (pain) and sukh (pleasure). Thereby, over generations the Shakha has built strong bonds with local people. The BJP does not have an equivalent. Hence, a key reason for allegiance to UBT Sena and not to Shinde Sena as Eknath Shinde discovered in 2026 polls.

This could change if Udhav does not keep his flock together, speak for the well-being of the Marathi manoos and breaks ties with Raj Thackeray.

5. Raj Thackeray MNS was started in 2006, got 28 seats in 2012. Thereafter, he lost credibility by being perceived as a tool to split the Marathi vote hence got 7 seats in 2017 and 6 in 2026.

In 2026, UBT benefitted by aligning with Raj since the Marathi votes were not split. A friend whose mother worked with the original SS said that Raj is like Balasaheb (very good speaker) and Udhav like his mother Meenatai (silent worker and thinker). Most do not know that Udhav and Raj parents, were brothers and sisters.

Udhav should keep the alliance with Raj alive across generations. Because, as Mumbai’s demographics change the alliance would be more important.

6. Being unable to break UBT, Eknath Shinde will try hard to control BMC so that he can build bridges with the electorate of Central Mumbai esp. Marathi Manoos. (SHS strike rate about 32% against BJP’s around 65%)

7. AIMIM won 8 seats (227) in Mumbai, 33 (115) is Sambhajinagar, 21 in Malegon, 14 is Nanded, 13 is Amravati, 10 in Dhule, 8 in Solapur, 6 in Nagpur, 5 in Thane, 3 is Akola, 2 each in Ahilyanagar and Jalna. Source Indian Express 18/1/.

Most of Mumbai victories came from Govandi and Cheetah Camp areas, Muslim dominated and densely populated. It won 5 seats earlier held by the Samajawadi Party. Now AIMIM is seen as party of the Muslims not SP. It is possible that Muslims who voted for the Congress earlier now voted for AIMIM.

One way to understand demographic changes is to compare census and electoral voters list (Lok Sabha, Assembly, Local polls) by Constituency.

Aurangabad, Nanded, Beed, Latur, Jalna, Osmanabad districts etc were part of the Nizam of Hyderabad domain and AIMIM is a Hyderabad based party. Affinity exists. Most of these regions have a large Muslim population. Leader A Owaisi is articulate in voicing Muslim issues on TV. His family background helps.

However, this Swarajyamag.com article states, “The less talked about history of the (AI)MIM includes its legacy of pre-independence brutality. In 1944, the MIM took a more militant turn under the leadership of Syed Qasim Rizvi, who commanded a force numbering anywhere between 50 thousand to 2 lakh men. The Razakars clamped down on any dissent against the Nizam. In their frenzy, they went about murdering Hindus, communists and even progressive Muslims who advocated a merger with India.”

According to this 2025 Deccan Herald report, “BJP leader Kirit Somaiya alleged that bogus birth certificates were being issued to illegal Bangladeshi immigrants and Rohingyas in parts of Maharashtra.” Another report  As Home Minister CM Fadnavis has to prevent this attempt to change demographics.

8. I hope the BJP does not try to encourage corporators from UBT or alliance partner Shinde Sena to break away and support the BJP. Compromise and realism by BJP and Eknath Shinde is called for. A false sense of importance can create serious rifts between alliance partners.

A close friend who lives in Mumbai says that old time Mumbaikars have an attachment to the Thackeray Brothers.

Will this attachment continue post Udhav? What happens to the UBT-MNS alliance in the post Udhav/Sharad Pawar era.

The BJP has to make living in Mumbai affordable and find ways, other than real estate/redevelopment to increase employment and State GDP.

References

1. Hindustan Times

2. Indian Express 18/1/26

3. India Today  

The cover pic is courtesy Indian Express and taken from Here

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