• A BJP loss in U.P. could delay if not stop construction of the Sri Ram Mandir.  Why this state election would be keenly watched by China.

The first case in the Ayodhya matter was filed 134 years ago, as of 2019. “The first recorded legal history in Ayodhya dispute dates back to 1858. An FIR was filed on November 30, 1858, by one Mohd Salim against a group of Nihang Sikhs who had installed their nishan and written “Ram” inside the Babri mosque.” Source Economic Times

It was only in 2019 that the Apex Court gave its final decision and work on constructing a Sri Ram Mandir started. The pace of work can move fast because there is a BJP government ruling Uttar Pradesh and at the Centre.

Now if a non BJP government were to come to power post the February 2022 elections one can expect numerous roadblocks to come up in temple construction. After all any construction activity requires numerous local approvals that a state or lower tier of government has to give. These road blocks can be construed to be similar to the firing on Karsewaks in the year 1990. Building of infrastructure in Ayodhya, with intent to make it a global destination, also requires active participation by and support of the state government.

Thus, a BJP loss means a huge possibility of temple construction getting delayed. In effect, the delay might nullify the effect of the 2019 Supreme Court order and ensure that the temple if ever ready, is surely post the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The non-BJP state government would, for obvious reasons, wish to delay temple construction because the electoral benefit of the Sri Ram Mandir shall go to the BJP alone.

Further, if the temple is not made the non-BJP opposition shall present itself as the saviour of the minorities. Consolidation of the Muslim vote shall entirely go in their favour in 2024. 

Also since the pink stone, sourced from Banshi Paharpur in Bharatpur district for which the Centre recently gave permission, for the temple is to come from mines in Rajasthan, a loss in U.P. would give the Congress government a chance to delay supply of sandstone on any pretext.  It could also impact the Central Vista project since the red stone is to come from the Barmer-Jailsamer region.

Thus, if a Sri Ram Mandir is to be built at Ayodhya before April 2024, it is imperative for the BJP to win the February 2022 assembly poll.

A BJP loss would make the Opposition even more strident and aggressive at various forums just we are seeing post their victories in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where BJP was not a significant player.

Since U.P. contributes significantly to total G.S.T. collections, a loss could weaken the BJP’s negotiating power when the question of a 14% assured growth in revenue collection under GST comes up for discussion in the GST Council. Note compensation is set to expire in 2022.

There is an international dimension to the U.P. election esp. view of the Ladakh stand-off with China.

In March 2017, post BJP’s victory in U.P., was published an article BJP’s election  win has implications for Sino-Indian ties in the Chinese state-run Global Times, considered as the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China. Excerpts, ‘In the international arena, (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi changed India’s previous attitude of trying never to offend anyone and started to take a clear stance in controversies among other nations to maximise its own interests.’ Source Global Times

So the Chinese will be looking at this election with interest and might seek to influence the result as well. In their thinking a loss for BJP in Uttar Pradesh might strengthen their negotiating position in Ladakh. If indeed they think that way, they have failed to understand Narendra Modi.

BJP strategists must keep the above in mind while deciding their election strategy for this epic battle of the Hindi heartland. A victory would consolidate its 2017 win and BJP rule in the state. Perhaps, Yogi Adityanath could take some tips on how to get re-elected from BJP Assam’s leadership and Modi himself.

Also read

1. U.P. Elections – What BJP needs to keep in mind

2. Rama’s will prevails  

3. Ramayana around Rameshwaram